Global oil inventories drop fast amid Middle East supply disruption, risking price spikes by summer.

Global oil inventories are falling rapidly due to supply disruptions in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While stockpiles initially cushioned the impact, inventories are expected to approach record lows by the end of May, which could stress the supply chain. Analysts warn that if the strait remains closed, oil prices will spike to prevent inventories from dropping below critical levels, potentially causing severe economic effects before the third quarter of 2026. The International Energy Agency and major banks like UBS and JPMorgan highlight that higher prices are likely ahead of peak summer demand to manage shrinking supply buffers.