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10-year Treasury yield ends at 4.55%, yield curve signals potential recession timing.

Market News
17 Jul 2026
ETF Trends
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Neutral
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On July 17, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.55%, with the 2-year note at 4.18%. The yield curve, particularly the 10-2 year spread, remains a key recession indicator, having been negative from mid-2022 to late 2024, suggesting an average lead time to recession of about 11 months from the first negative spread. Mortgage rates, influenced by the Federal Funds Rate, recently peaked at 6.55% for a 30-year fixed rate, reflecting shifts in Fed policy. Investors watch these Treasury yields and spreads closely as signals of economic health and potential downturns ahead.

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