Samsara shares drop 50% despite record Q4, with potential 68% upside on strong FY28 revenue forecast.

Samsara's stock has fallen about 50% from its peak amid broad SaaS sector devaluation, even though it reported its best-ever Q4 FY26 results. Unlike typical SaaS firms, Samsara sells industrial IoT solutions focused on ROI rather than user seats, benefiting from hardware-based switching costs and additive AI revenue streams. Analysts see a base valuation target of around $52 per share, implying 68% upside based on FY28 revenue projections, with key catalysts including upcoming Q1 FY27 earnings and a major conference. However, a bearish scenario could push the stock down to $24 if the SaaS sector's multiple compression continues and the company fails to exceed expectations.