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Taiwan Semiconductor holds after 110% rally; valuation exceeds fair value despite strong Q2 and eased geopolitical risks.

Analyst Insights
25 Jul 2026
Seeking Alpha
View Source
Neutral
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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) retains a hold rating following a 110% stock price rally, as its current valuation surpasses aggressive fair value estimates. The easing of geopolitical tensions, including relaxed U.S. export restrictions and restored access to China for major clients, supports TSM's revenue growth. Despite record Q2 results and an improved 2026 outlook, high capital expenditures and elevated market expectations have tempered enthusiasm. A discounted cash flow model suggests the fair value remains below the current price, limiting the margin of safety for investors.

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