US Oil Fund nearly doubled in 5 months on supply shocks, outpacing S&P 500's 11% gain in 2026.

The United States Oil Fund (USO) surged nearly 98% from the end of 2025 to June 2026, driven by a major supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp drop in OPEC+ production. This outpaced the S&P 500's modest 11% gain over the same period. The supply shock caused crude oil prices to spike, with USO benefiting from a favorable futures market condition called backwardation. However, this rally is tied to specific geopolitical events and may reverse as supply normalizes and the futures curve shifts back to contango. Investors should watch oil prices, futures curve shape, OPEC+ meetings, and inventory reports for signs of change.