European airlines are facing a significant reduction in Middle East seat capacity, with a 22% drop in March and a 39% decline expected in April, due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. This contraction impacts major carriers like British Airways, Lufthansa, and Air France-KLM, which rely on the region for both direct flights and connections to Asia. UBS warns that these structural risks may persist beyond any diplomatic solutions and highlights potential jet fuel shortages that could further increase costs and reduce capacity. While China-Europe and US-Europe routes show growth, the Middle East remains a key challenge for European aviation demand in the near term.
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