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Taleb warns US oil shock from Iran conflict could trigger decade-long chaos, not just a brief disruption.

Market News
24 Mar 2026
Benzinga
View Source
Bearish
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb criticized Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's optimistic view that US strikes on Iran's energy facilities would cause only a short-term oil price surge lasting about 50 days. Taleb argues that Bessent underestimates the risk of prolonged systemic chaos due to the 'Fat Tails' effect, where extreme events have greater impact and duration than expected. This critique highlights the potential for a decade of economic instability rather than a brief disruption, especially amid ongoing US-Iran tensions and recent attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. The situation remains volatile as oil prices fluctuate and diplomatic talks continue with a temporary pause on strikes.

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