New report warns US auto market faces a 3-year new model drought, with hybrids rising and EVs stalling.

Veteran auto analyst John Murphy launched Murphy Automotive Partners and its MAPP report forecasting US new car releases through 2031. The report highlights a deep 3-year product drought in the US market, with average vehicle age hitting a record high by 2028. It predicts hybrid vehicles will more than double market share by 2031, while pure electric vehicles will stagnate. The report also notes a market shift favoring trucks and small SUVs, with mid-size crossovers declining. Murphy emphasizes that product competitiveness, not just electrification hype, will determine which brands survive in this challenging period. The full report will be available to subscribers in late July 2026.