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Traders see nearly 40% chance of stagflation hitting the US economy by end of 2026

Market News
14 May 2026
CNBC
View Source
Bearish
pluang ai news

Kalshi traders now predict a nearly 40% chance of stagflation—high inflation combined with high unemployment—impacting the US economy by the end of 2026, up from 11% three months ago. This shift follows recent data showing inflation at 3.8% year-on-year in April, the highest since May 2023, and rising wholesale prices. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.3%. The chances of a soft landing, where the economy slows without recession or high inflation, have dropped to 21%, the lowest level on Kalshi. Other platforms like Polymarket show different odds but still signal economic uncertainty ahead.

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