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Oil market in backwardation signals risk premium amid Iran war uncertainty

Market News
26 Mar 2026
CNBC
View Source
Neutral
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The oil market is currently in backwardation, where near-term futures trade at a premium over longer-dated contracts, reflecting a risk premium due to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Despite hopes for a swift resolution, oil prices remain elevated with Brent crude near $99 per barrel, about 36% higher than pre-war levels. Analysts suggest the market expects the price spike to be temporary but warn that risks, including damaged energy infrastructure and ongoing regional tensions, may not be fully priced in. The futures curve indicates a return to more normal prices by year-end, but with a lasting risk premium of around $10-$12 per barrel above pre-conflict levels.

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