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Tesla raises 2026 capex forecast to $25B, deepening AI investments despite near-term financial pressures

Analyst Insights
13 May 2026
Proactive Investors
View Source
Neutral
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UBS raised Tesla's price target to $364, noting the company's shift toward becoming a 'physical AI company' with increased investments in AI, robotics, and manufacturing infrastructure. Tesla raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $20 billion to $25 billion, expecting to remain free-cash-flow negative through 2026 due to these investments. CEO Elon Musk tempered expectations on AI commercialization, indicating slow ramp-up for Optimus robots and delayed revenue from unsupervised Full Self-Driving and robotaxis. Despite near-term financial challenges, Tesla continues progress in AI software and infrastructure, including Cortex 2 AI compute rollout and expansion of robotaxi operations.

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