Nutrien posts record potash sales but Q4 EPS misses; Reddit sentiment bearish amid geopolitical risks.

Nutrien Ltd. achieved record potash sales of 14.25 million tonnes in 2025 and generated $2 billion in free cash flow, yet its Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.83 fell short of the $0.92 consensus. The earnings miss coincided with geopolitical supply shocks that raised fertilizer prices, contributing to a cautious retail sentiment score of 32 on Reddit despite strong share price gains. Analysts remain divided, with some upgrading price targets due to Middle East supply disruptions, while others downgrade over valuation and expected price declines. Key risks include a federal price-fixing lawsuit and uncertainty from a phosphate strategic review, which will influence Nutrien's earnings recovery outlook in 2026.