Bitcoin's price is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors, especially expectations around U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. Recent comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh suggesting openness to rate cuts have boosted optimism in the crypto market. However, this optimism conflicts with on-chain data showing weak AI sector productivity and uncertain economic returns, which challenges the assumption that AI-driven gains will ease inflation. If AI productivity fails to deliver real economic improvements, the narrative supporting rate cuts may weaken, increasing the risk of a sell-off in Bitcoin as actual macro conditions diverge from expectations.
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