Tinder shows early user growth signs but faces ongoing structural challenges, says Jefferies.

Jefferies reports that Tinder, owned by Match Group, is showing tentative improvements in new user registrations and monthly active users, with revenue and paying users potentially beating estimates this year if user losses are lower than expected. However, Jefferies remains cautious, noting that recent product updates and branding changes are unlikely to reverse Tinder's overall downward trend. The firm forecasts a slight revenue decline in Q2 and a further drop in Q3 due to increased user losses, while expressing skepticism about Tinder achieving durable growth by 2027 amid broader dating market challenges. Jefferies maintains a Hold rating with a $35 price target based on 8x FY27 EBITDA.