The ongoing war in Iran, which began on February 28, has caused oil prices to surge nearly 49%, pushing West Texas Intermediate crude to its highest levels since mid-2022. This escalation has led to rising Treasury yields and inflation concerns, complicating the investment landscape with higher rates and supply chain disruptions. Investors face a challenging market environment where traditional safe havens like bonds and consumer staples have drawbacks, and tech stocks are pressured by inflation and AI competition. The conflict's uncertain duration and potential for prolonged disruption suggest a possible 20% stock market decline if oil hits $120 a barrel, but an end to the war could trigger a strong market rally.
