
Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy have seen their stocks rise sharply over the past year, with gains of 95.7% and 127.8% respectively, driven by rising crude oil prices and strong refining margins. Marathon trades at a low forward P/E of 7x, suggesting undervaluation, while Valero’s higher P/E reflects some accounting charges but also strong adjusted earnings. Key upcoming catalysts include Marathon’s El Paso yield improvements and Blackcomb Pipeline project, and Valero’s St. Charles FCC optimization and dividend hike. Risks include potential margin compression if oil prices normalize and regulatory challenges, especially for Valero. Marathon appears a more defensible buy currently due to its valuation and buyback program, while Valero faces more valuation risk if crack spreads fall.