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Record $700B equity supply surge expected in 2026 amid market highs, risking sharp losses for new IPOs.

Market News
08 Jun 2026
Seeking Alpha
View Source
Bearish
pluang ai news

A record surge in equity supply is expected in 2026, with mega-IPOs like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Databricks combined with lockup expirations potentially flooding the market with over $700 billion in new shares. This surge coincides with the S&P 500 reaching an all-time high of 7,609 and a Shiller CAPE ratio near 42, indicating an extremely rich market. Historically, such large voluntary equity supplies cluster at market tops and often precede significant price declines, especially impacting newly issued shares rather than broad market indices. Investors should be cautious as the 2021 IPO and SPAC classes lost over 60% after their peaks, suggesting similar risks ahead for the 2026 wave.

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