Shell's Q1 profit forecast rises 18% on stronger trading but UBS stays neutral on shares.

Shell PLC's updated trading performance has led UBS analysts to increase their first-quarter profit forecast by 18%, driven by better-than-expected liquids trading, lower upstream taxes, and stronger downstream volumes. Despite this, UBS maintains a neutral rating on Shell shares with a price target of 3,850p, implying about 8% upside. UBS notes a larger-than-expected working capital build and increased shipping lease liabilities, which temporarily raise Shell's net debt. The bank expects Shell's operational cash flow to be significantly higher than previous estimates and anticipates buybacks to remain steady at $3.5 billion when Q1 results are reported on May 7.