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Bitcoin and stocks perform best under divided U.S. government, not full party control, analyst finds.

Market News
14 May 2026
Benzinga
View Source
Neutral
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Analyst Benjamin Cowen found that Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500 historically deliver stronger median returns under divided U.S. government control rather than when one party fully controls the presidency and Congress. Bitcoin, in particular, tends to perform poorly during full party sweeps, with its best median returns occurring under split governments, suggesting markets favor political gridlock and less policy uncertainty. Despite recent underperformance this year, Cowen notes that markets generally trend higher over time regardless of political shifts, and a split Congress in 2027 could be bullish for Bitcoin based on past trends. However, he cautions that long-term market structure and liquidity are more important than short-term political events.

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