LyondellBasell stays a Buy with strong margins and $1.5B EBITDA target from modernization by 2028

LyondellBasell remains a strong Buy due to its North American cost advantages and strategic shifts, including exiting a Houston refinery to focus on circular and low-carbon solutions. The company benefits from higher margins amid Middle East feedstock disruptions and has raised prices in Europe. Management aims to generate $1.5 billion in recurring EBITDA by 2028 through modernization and AI initiatives, supporting dividends and capital expenditures with a 95% cash conversion rate. This positions LYB as a leader in US Gulf Coast recycling and a resilient player in the chemical sector.