Copper supply tightens sharply while mining stocks lag behind metal price gains, says RBC.

Copper's physical market is experiencing a severe supply squeeze with spot prices rising 4.3% to $6.73/lb, while copper mining stocks fell 2.6%, showing a disconnect between metal prices and producer equities. Supply disruptions include a boiler failure at Indonesia’s PT Smelting Gresik, production cuts by Antofagasta due to storms, and Codelco abandoning its 1.34 million tonne production target. Despite these supply issues, Chinese demand has softened, with imports down 11.5% year-on-year and slower industrial growth. RBC forecasts copper prices to average $5.83/lb in 2026 and $6.00/lb from 2027-2029, but mining equities are pricing in much lower copper prices than current spot levels.