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US-Iran tensions keep energy prices high, inflation expectations rising amid stalled Strait of Hormuz conflict.

Market News
20 May 2026
Seeking Alpha
View Source
Bearish
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The ongoing stalemate between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz is causing sustained high energy prices and increasing inflation expectations. Despite President Trump's readiness to strike Iran, military escalation is unlikely due to political risks, potential oil price spikes, and low presidential approval ahead of midterm elections. Iran is strengthening control over the Strait by imposing transit fees and bypassing sanctions through alternative trade routes, weakening US influence. Bond markets reflect these tensions with higher inflation and interest rate expectations, reducing the chances of rate cuts as the conflict continues.

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