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Prediction markets show low odds for Tesla-SpaceX merger before 2027 despite SpaceX IPO plans.

Market News
30 Mar 2026
Rounak Jain
View Source
Bearish
pluang ai news

SpaceX is reportedly planning a $75 billion IPO, valuing the company at around $1.75 trillion, with a target listing in June. Amid this, rumors of a Tesla-SpaceX merger have surfaced, but no official confirmation exists. Gary Black from The Future Fund warns that such a merger could reduce Tesla's stock value by 20-25% due to valuation differences. Prediction market data from Kalshi shows only a 22% chance of a merger before March 2027, with the highest probability of 26% before May 2027, indicating skepticism among bettors about the merger happening soon.

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