Citi keeps GSK shares neutral despite earnings upgrade due to uncertain drug pipeline and litigation risks

Citi raised earnings forecasts for GSK following its Accelerate Growth event and Q2 results, supported by a £1.9 billion cost-saving plan reinvested into R&D. This funds 20 phase III trials in 2026, expected to boost earnings per share by 1-4% from 2027 to 2030. However, Citi remains cautious with a neutral rating due to limited external data on these trials and the weakest projected earnings growth among European pharma firms. Additionally, ongoing litigation over Jemperli with AnaptysBio poses further uncertainty, with a hearing in October and a ruling expected by early 2027.