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IEA cuts 2026 oil demand forecast, warns of 2027 supply glut after Iran war resolution

Market News
17 Jun 2026
CNBC
View Source
Bearish
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2026 by 700,000 barrels per day due to high prices and supply disruptions from the Iran war. Demand dropped sharply in Q2 2023, while supply also fell below pre-war levels. However, the IEA expects a strong supply rebound in 2027, potentially causing a significant oil surplus as production could rise by 8 million barrels per day, outpacing modest demand recovery. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran may gradually restore exports, but full normalization will take time. Meanwhile, global oil inventories continue to decline rapidly, risking historic lows before a market surplus emerges late 2023 or 2024.

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