Iran war drives energy costs up, risks slowing US growth if fighting resumes beyond ceasefire.

The Iran war is pushing up energy prices, notably oil, which is impacting inflation and threatening US economic growth. Economists expect only modest GDP effects if the current ceasefire holds, but renewed conflict could deepen uncertainty and slow growth further. Oil prices near $125 a barrel could trigger more serious economic damage, though current prices are below that threshold. Inflation remains elevated but mixed, with core inflation easing slightly. The Federal Reserve's response and global supply chain disruptions add complexity to the outlook, with slower growth and possible rate cuts anticipated later this year if inflation and unemployment trends worsen.