Chevron may gain $1.7B in Q1'26 from Middle East conflict-driven oil price rise

Chevron Corporation is expected to benefit from the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has driven up crude oil prices. This surge could boost Chevron's earnings by approximately $1.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026, supporting increased stock buybacks and a potential rise in its stock valuation. Currently, Chevron shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7, with a justified target of 20.0 if oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. However, risks include a quick resolution to the Iran conflict or production issues in Guyana and the Permian Basin that could lower prices and earnings.