Chevron warns Q1 earnings hit $2.7-$3.7B from Middle East volatility, UBS cuts near-term forecasts.

Chevron expects a $2.7 billion to $3.7 billion negative impact on its Q1 2026 earnings and cash flow due to commodity price swings linked to Middle East conflict, mainly affecting its downstream and international operations. Production is forecast to decline amid operational downtimes in the Middle East and Tengizchevroil. UBS lowered its Q1 earnings per share estimate from $1.48 to $0.59 but raised longer-term earnings forecasts due to stronger oil price assumptions, expecting Brent crude to average $81 per barrel in 2026. Despite near-term challenges, Chevron's shares fell 1.4% following the update.