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Century Aluminum sees 50% upside with strong Q1 earnings and industry deficits boosting prices

Analyst Insights
03 Jun 2026
Seeking Alpha
View Source
Bullish
pluang ai news

Century Aluminum (CENX) is rated a Buy with about 50% upside potential over the next 12-16 months, driven by ongoing structural deficits in the aluminum industry and strong aluminum prices. The company reported a 35% quarter-on-quarter increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q1, reaching $231 million, and expects Q2 EBITDA between $315 million and $335 million, with a potential run-rate exceeding $400 million. Long-term growth is supported by a 40% stake in a new US smelter joint venture and expected share buybacks as capital expenditures decline from mid-2026. Key risks include energy costs and tariff policies, but current valuations underestimate the durability of the aluminum market squeeze.

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