Bitcoin risks a 50% drop as its correlation with US stocks turns positive, signaling potential major decline.

Bitcoin's 20-week rolling correlation with the S&P 500 has turned positive, a pattern that historically precedes significant BTC price drops averaging around 50%. Recently, Bitcoin erased gains linked to geopolitical tensions and moved in line with declining US equities amid rising macroeconomic pressures like inflation and high oil prices. Analysts warn this renewed correlation signals a risk of Bitcoin falling to roughly $34,350, with some projections as low as $30,000–$40,000 in 2026. Additionally, major Bitcoin holder Strategy paused its BTC purchases, increasing Bitcoin's vulnerability to a broader market sell-off.