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Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 amid US-Iran tensions and tightening liquidity, but deep crash odds remain low.

Market News
04 Apr 2026
Coinpaper
View Source
Bearish
pluang ai news

Bitcoin faces renewed downside risk as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran raise fears of a broader market selloff. Analyst Mike McGlone suggests Bitcoin might revisit $10,000, a level tied to its long-term fundamental value, driven by tighter liquidity and risk-off moves in global markets. Research from XWIN highlights that worsening geopolitical stress, rising oil prices, and fragile liquidity could push Bitcoin down 25-30% to $50,000 or even lower to $20,000-$30,000 if ETF outflows and weak demand persist. The most extreme scenario, linked to a prolonged conflict in the Hormuz Strait, could see Bitcoin fall to $10,000, though market odds for such a crash are about 5%, with traders favoring a more moderate decline to mid-range support levels.

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