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Bitcoin bottom not confirmed yet; key on-chain signals missing, bottom likely in October 2026

Analyst Insights
11 Apr 2026
CoinPedia
View Source
Bearish
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Bitcoin recently had a strong rally, but analyst Benjamin Cowen says key on-chain signals that mark previous cycle bottoms have not appeared yet. These include profit/loss supply crossing, MVRV Z-score dropping below zero, and Bitcoin trading below both its realized and balance prices. Cowen identifies $78,000-$79,000 as a resistance band that Bitcoin must surpass to confirm a trend reversal. He estimates a 75% chance the bottom is still ahead, likely around October 2026, with a potential price reset near $39,000. This view is data-driven and may change if new lows do not appear by then.

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