Copper supply faces risks from sulfuric acid shortage amid Hormuz Strait tensions and export bans.

Goldman Sachs maintains a $12,650 per metric ton copper price target for 2026, anticipating a 490,000-ton surplus. However, this outlook depends on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for sulfur exports, which has been effectively closed due to conflict with Iran. The shortage of sulfuric acid, essential for copper extraction, is worsened by China's ban on sulfuric acid exports starting May 2026, threatening copper production in Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo. BHP is responding by increasing copper output and expanding exploration in Africa, leveraging advanced geological techniques to find new deposits. The situation poses risks to global copper supply if disruptions continue beyond mid-2026.