Crude oil futures plunged from a high of $117.63 to settle near $96 after a ceasefire eased fears of supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The sharp price drop was driven by the removal of a fear premium built on war risks, not by an actual improvement in supply, which remains tight due to ongoing infrastructure damage and restricted tanker movement. While OPEC+ talks of production increases and higher U.S. inventories added downward pressure, the physical market fundamentals have not changed. Going forward, oil prices are expected to remain volatile with a bearish tone as long as the ceasefire holds, but supply risks keep a floor under prices. Key technical levels to watch are $91.05 as support and $104.34 to $107.48 as resistance for potential trend shifts.
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