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Bitcoin could drop to $38,000 by October if 2025-26 downturn mirrors 2022 bear market, says NYDIG.

Market News
16 Jul 2026
Bitcoin
View Source
Bearish
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NYDIG projects Bitcoin might fall to $38,000-$39,000 by October 2026 if the current 2025-26 market decline matches the depth of the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin is currently trading near $64,500, down about 30% this year and roughly 50% below its October 2025 peak of $126,080. The firm notes the market is driven by leverage rather than demand, and classic capitulation signs have not yet appeared. Other analysts offer varied views, with some seeing the bottom near $60,000 and others predicting further declines, leaving uncertainty about how much the bear market will deepen or how long it will last.

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