Upstart sees 44% revenue growth with AI loans but awaits Fed rate cuts for full earnings boost

Upstart reported a 44% year-over-year revenue increase driven by a 61% surge in Q1 transaction volumes to $3.4 billion, fueled by its AI-powered loan origination platform. Despite this strong growth, the company’s earnings and EBITDA expansion are delayed due to the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady. Upstart currently trades at a significant discount compared to fintech peers and its historical valuation, suggesting potential upside if interest rates fall. Analysts see fair value at a 20X P/E ratio, implying over 100% upside as the company expands into auto loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).