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Bitcoin nears a key 'buy zone' as price gap to realized value tightens but capitulation is absent.

Technical Signals
31 Mar 2026
Coindesk
View Source
Neutral
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Bitcoin's spot price is now about 21% above its realized price, indicating most holders are still profitable and the market hasn't hit a classic long-term bottom. The gap between spot and realized price has rapidly narrowed from a 120% premium in late 2024 to 21% now, suggesting a fast compression phase rather than a full reset. Historically, true accumulation zones occurred when spot price fell below realized price, signaling widespread losses and market capitulation, which hasn't happened yet. Bitcoin may need to drop further toward $54,000 to reach that level, but strong ETF inflows and price resilience suggest buyers remain active despite the lack of on-chain capitulation signals.

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