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Bitcoin may drop 28% more before next bull market, says analyst based on key on-chain metric.

Technical Signals
16 Jun 2026
Finbold
View Source
Bearish
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Despite Bitcoin's recent 10% recovery, analyst Ali Martinez warns the next bull market is not imminent. He points to the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric, which last marked a market bottom when Bitcoin hit around $48,000. Martinez suggests Bitcoin could fall about 28% from current levels before a strong bull market begins, with a potential bottom near $38,000 in October 2026. The cryptocurrency remains in a long-term downtrend, showing lower highs and lows since its late 2025 peak above $125,000, and is currently down over 24% year-to-date. Investors are advised to watch key price zones for accumulation but to be cautious about buying into the current rally.

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