Oil supply disruptions ignored by markets, risking sharp price spike despite S&P 500 near highs

Despite severe oil supply disruptions from conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, equity and energy markets remain complacent, with the S&P 500 near record highs. AI-driven trading and research have reinforced institutional narratives that downplay the extent of oil inventory drawdowns. However, estimates suggest global oil inventories fell by up to 1 billion barrels between March and July, far exceeding official figures, which could lead to a delayed but sharp increase in oil prices. The analyst maintains a 27% allocation in oil and gas stocks, expecting a market inflection around September.