Strait of Hormuz disruptions cause biggest oil supply shock, Brent oil to stay $90-$100 through 2026.

Persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered the largest oil supply shock in history, pushing Brent crude oil prices to remain between $90 and $100 per barrel through 2026. This supply shock is expected to have significant inflationary effects, with impacts on consumer prices, logistics, and food sectors emerging in the second and third quarters. The previous market consensus of a soft economic landing and interest rate cuts is now unlikely, with stagflation risks and a constrained Federal Reserve becoming the new baseline scenario. Investors should prepare for a challenging market environment rather than expecting a quick relief rally.